Just two months prior that the young forward was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while his coach scolded him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his displays were a sign or the reason of Villa's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, though, the manager's outburst proved to be far more favourable. After the England international swept in his second to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, spread his arms and roared. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row , despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, find themselves a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult question to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.
According to the data, in only two games has the team had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side that have strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the margins are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy seems to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with some precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again versus the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, curled right inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent the club must confront in the near future. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet find their top level.
- The centre-forward may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent might become the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers now would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.
