A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
